News & Events
February 2012 Market Commentary: Early 2012: Cautious Confidence
February 6th, 2012The start of the New Year was surprisingly strong. We believe the market rally caught many investors off guard, as they left 2011 in a sour mood as equity markets were down for the year. As the table above illustrates, the month was very strong, as all major North American indices were up a minimum of 3%. The emerging markets showed even greater strength as stock markets such as Brazil, India and China were up more than double the North American markets. We believe markets have rallied this year on the back of two separate forces; 1) better macro-economic news and 2) concerns over financial conditions (European debt crisis, Chinese monetary policy) which appear to be easing. We address both issues and answer the question: Does this rally have further to go?
Economic Pulse: There are tentative signs economic growth is strengthening after a soft patch that started in the spring of last year. Below is one “real life” example; U.S. rail car loadings which shows an improving economy as more freight is being carried. The month-to-month data can be very volatile (light lines) but it is unmistakable the six-month moving average has risen sharply.
Another often looked at series for guidance on the economy is the Purchasing Managers Index. This is a survey that asks global manufacturers if business conditions are improving, staying the same or deteriorating. A reading above 50 indicates conditions are improving. The index is back above 50 and at levels last seen seven months ago. These signs (plus a stronger than expected U.S. job hiring) are encouraging but a sustainable uptrend is still too early to predict. We sense the global economy is still fragile and ill prepared to withstand any significant negative shock (e.g. a sudden rise in oil prices and/or a disorderly break away of one of the EU members). Last year we believe it was a confluence of several unforeseen events; the Arab spring up-rising which led to a rapid rise in oil prices, the Japanese tsunami that affected production of various industries, the U.S. budget impasse, the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade and a further escalation in the European debt crisis that led consumers and businesses to retreat/pause. We believe these shocks are being absorbed and a resumption of growth is happening.
See the complete commentary attached below:
Another often looked at series for guidance on the economy is the Purchasing Managers Index. This is a survey that asks global manufacturers if business conditions are improving, staying the same or deteriorating. A reading above 50 indicates conditions are improving. The index is back above 50 and at levels last seen seven months ago. These signs (plus a stronger than expected U.S. job hiring) are encouraging but a sustainable uptrend is still too early to predict. We sense the global economy is still fragile and ill prepared to withstand any significant negative shock (e.g. a sudden rise in oil prices and/or a disorderly break away of one of the EU members). Last year we believe it was a confluence of several unforeseen events; the Arab spring up-rising which led to a rapid rise in oil prices, the Japanese tsunami that affected production of various industries, the U.S. budget impasse, the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade and a further escalation in the European debt crisis that led consumers and businesses to retreat/pause. We believe these shocks are being absorbed and a resumption of growth is happening.
See the complete commentary attached below:
Appointment of Timothy E. Price as President and CEO of MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier Inc.
January 27th, 2012Please be advised that Daniel Thompson has tendered his resignation as President, CEO, UDP and Director of MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier Inc. (and associated positions with MacDougall Investment Counsel Inc.) effective January 27, 2012. We wish Daniel every success in his future endeavours, and thank him for his efforts and contributions to the Firm.
The Board of Directors has met and approved the appointment of Timothy E. Price as President, CEO and UDP of the Firm effective on January 27, 2012.
Timothy Price served as President and CEO of 3 Macs from June 2002 to May 2009. He joined the Firm in 1984 and has been a Director of the Firm since 1992. Tim is a past Chair of the Investment Industry Association of Canada and has over 28 years of experience in the industry. He has been Chair of the Firm since February 2009.
The Board of Directors has met and approved the appointment of Timothy E. Price as President, CEO and UDP of the Firm effective on January 27, 2012.
Timothy Price served as President and CEO of 3 Macs from June 2002 to May 2009. He joined the Firm in 1984 and has been a Director of the Firm since 1992. Tim is a past Chair of the Investment Industry Association of Canada and has over 28 years of experience in the industry. He has been Chair of the Firm since February 2009.
